The chief economist at Moody’s Analytics believes the battle of tariffs between the U.S. and China could result in the loss of 190,000 American jobs.
Mark Zandi also said what’s shaping up to be a trade war between the nations could put a small dent in GDP growth.
For months, President Trump has continued to gripe about the cost to U.S. workers of the U.S.-China trade imbalance. But, if Zandi is more or less right, the tit-for-tat trade attacks that he set off last week will cut close to a month's average growth in U.S. jobs, and 0.14% from this year's growth in GDP. "And the economic costs will mount quickly if the back-and-forth tariff hikes continue," he tells Axios.
But Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told Axios Americans shouldn’t be too concerned just yet -- what looks like a trade war is essentially just posturing at this point.
"Trump’s supporters and China will continue to create off ramps from the worst outcomes," Bremmer says.
But, he adds, if what's been announced gets implemented, "That will mean goods are more expensive, companies will be less profitable, the average worker gets hurt."
As for the stock market?
GeoQuant, a New York research firm that uses artificial intelligence, says to expect at least a month more of trade-induced mayhem in the stock market.
But even that won't be the end of it, GeoQuant says, since the tariffs war are only one facet of Trump's palette of outbursts. "Markets will continue to be jolted by U.S. politics at least through the 2018 midterm elections," the firm said.