The story of President Donald Trump's support network continues to take new and interesting turns with news that blue-collar white voters have begun to abandon ship.
Previously unpublished results from the nonpartisan online-polling firm SurveyMonkey show Trump losing ground over his tumultuous first year not only with the younger voters and white-collar whites who have always been skeptical of him, but also with the blue-collar whites central to his coalition.
This is not to say that Trump has lost the bulk of support from this group, as he continues to find favor with the majority:
In the 2016 election, exit polls found that Trump’s best group was whites without a four-year college degree; he carried 66 percent of them. But his approval among them in the 2017 SurveyMonkey average slipped to 56 percent.
How does the exit by blue-collar whites break down further?
- Among white Millennial men without a degree, his most natural supporters, Trump only scores a 49-49 split.
- Support from white women without a college degree dropped from 61% last year to a current 49%.
- His approval rating among non-college-educated white women never rises above 54 percent in any age group, even those older than 50.
White it remains to be seen how these numbers will change between now and the next presidential election, Trump and the Republican party may have a tough road ahead:
Together, the results crystallize the bet Trump is making for his own reelection in 2020, and for his party’s chances in November’s election: that he can mobilize enough support among older and blue-collar (as well as rural and evangelical) whites to offset the intense resistance he’s provoked from groups that are all growing in the electorate: Millennials, minorities, and college-educated whites—particularly the women among them.